Saturday, August 16, 2008

Poland Takes Sides

"Even as Russia yesterday continued its heavy-handed intimidation of the former Soviet bloc, the government of Poland sent a message of its own to Moscow.

After 18 months of talks, Warsaw agreed to place a US missile-defense base on Polish soil, while Washington committed America to defend Poland "in case of trouble" - presumably of the military variety.

Clearly Polish President Lech Kaczinsky and Prime Minister Donald Tusk have been following Moscow's continuing march through Georgia - evidence of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's determination to re-establish its domination over Eastern Europe.

Such a move is of particular danger to Poland, which Russia historically has eyed as a buffer, a vassal - or both.

And Russia responded by ratcheting up its rhetorical barrage: Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, charged that the US-Polish deal "cannot go unpunished" - and warned that Warsaw "is exposing itself to a [nuclear] strike, 100 percent."

Russian military doctrine, he warned, allows the use of nukes "against the allies of countries" having similar arsenals "if they in some way help them."

Actually, as a specific military counter against a Russian nuclear attack, the US base is hardly effective. It's not operational, and its radar tracking system, to be installed in the Czech Republic, won't be in place for another four years.

Even with the enhanced security of top-of-the-line Patriot missiles, which are part of the deal, the Polish base would be small protection against a full-blown Russian strike.

Moreover, as the White House yesterday noted, "it's just not even logistically possible for it to be aimed at Russia, given how Russia could overwhelm it."

The actual purpose, Washington insists, is to deter any attacks from rogue states like Iran - even if Moscow thinks (or pretends to think) otherwise.

Militarily, that's probably true.

But the timing of the agreement sends a powerful message to Putin and his puppet president, Dmitry Medvedev, that their attempt to frighten Europe's new democracies away from alliances with the US will not succeed.

"We have crossed the Rubicon," said Poland's prime minister.

Now it's up to Washington to ensure that Poland's faith in America's commitment is not unfounded."

Well then. So much for Vlad The Invader's coup. Poland, is not Georgia. Poland was fighting for worker's rights while the USSR was threatening to crack down, and the Soviets were the ones that blinked.

While its true that Russia has far more resources than did the old Soviet Union, it also has a lot more to LOSE should things go haywire. The Russian military is STILL second-rate and smacking around poor little Georgia proved nothing besides the fact that nothing much has changed in the land of the tzar's and now the world is realizing it.

Bad move, Vlad. You couldn't overwhelm them with brilliance and deciding to baffle 'em with bullshit is a major sign of weakness.

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